Fronteira Sul
Tamanho da fonte:[-A] [+A]
Joel Santos Guimarães*
joel.guimaraes@anba.com.br
11/03/2010 - 13:59
Heading towards US$ 75 billion
With the return to agribusiness export growth, exporters are already betting that sector foreign sales should register growth of 15% over last year, when Brazil sold to the world US$ 64.76 billion in agricultural products. Forecasts are for revenues of almost US$ 75 billion this year.
With exports on the rise and imports at the same level as last year, the agribusiness trade balance surplus should be greater than that registered in 2009.
This year, specialists in foreign trade who were heard by the Southern Frontier, believe that agribusiness should answer to 45% of Brazilian exports, against 42.5% in 2009. It is worth recalling that last year the trade balance surplus was US$ 25.3 billion dollars whereas the agribusiness trade surplus was US$ 54.9 billion.
Guaranteeing the surplus
This means that, if it were not for the agribusiness trade balance, Brazilian global trade would have resulted in a deficit. The same ratio may be identified with regard to the previous year. Even at times with extremely low exchange rates, as in 1995 and 2000, the agribusiness trade balance was always positive when the Brazilian trade balance presented a deficit.
Another fact, according to exporters and mangers of cooperatives, that calls attention on examining the agribusiness trade balance is the constant growth of sales to new markets.
In fact, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply, if agribusiness exports to the world grew 20.6% in February, those to Russia, China, India, Iran, Thailand and Morocco respectively grew 86.7%, 37.4%, 153.4%, 185%, 375% and 81.5%.
It is worth recalling that in February, both Morocco and Saudi Arabia were among the 20 main buyers of Brazilian agribusiness products. In February, sales to the Saudis grew 16.9%, resulting in revenues of US$ 96.23 million.
Accumulation over two months
In the first two months of 2010, exports totalled US$ 8.479 billion, growth of 8.6% over the value exported in the same period in 2009. Imports also presented positive variation (29.9%), totalling 1.898 billion. The trade balance rose from US$ 6.343 billion to US$ 6.580 billion.
From March 2009 to February 2010, foreign sales of Brazilian agricultural products generated revenues of US$ 65.430 billion. This value was 7.2% lower than that reached in the period from March 2008 to February 2009, when they reached US$ 70.486 billion. Imports were 7.6% lower than in the previous months, with expenses of US$ 10.260 billion. As a result, the accumulated commercial surplus over the last 12 months was US$ 55.17 billion.
Domestic market
With the expansion of exports on the domestic market, the estimate is for the agribusiness GDP, which dropped around 5% last year, this year should reach between 4% to 5%. Farmer income should also rise.
The value of agricultural production, which represents the revenues of producers, should rise from 154.3 billion Brazilian reals (US$ 87 billion) to 160 billion reals (US$ 90 billion) from 2009 to 2010. Considering all agriculture, the value of agricultural production should rise from 272 billion reals (US$ 153 billion) to 285 billion reals (US$ 160 billion) from 2009 to 2010.
However, the year of 2010 should be better for agribusiness in terms of production, exports, domestic market and gross farmer income.
*Translated by Mark Ament
With exports on the rise and imports at the same level as last year, the agribusiness trade balance surplus should be greater than that registered in 2009.
This year, specialists in foreign trade who were heard by the Southern Frontier, believe that agribusiness should answer to 45% of Brazilian exports, against 42.5% in 2009. It is worth recalling that last year the trade balance surplus was US$ 25.3 billion dollars whereas the agribusiness trade surplus was US$ 54.9 billion.
Guaranteeing the surplus
This means that, if it were not for the agribusiness trade balance, Brazilian global trade would have resulted in a deficit. The same ratio may be identified with regard to the previous year. Even at times with extremely low exchange rates, as in 1995 and 2000, the agribusiness trade balance was always positive when the Brazilian trade balance presented a deficit.
Another fact, according to exporters and mangers of cooperatives, that calls attention on examining the agribusiness trade balance is the constant growth of sales to new markets.
In fact, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply, if agribusiness exports to the world grew 20.6% in February, those to Russia, China, India, Iran, Thailand and Morocco respectively grew 86.7%, 37.4%, 153.4%, 185%, 375% and 81.5%.
It is worth recalling that in February, both Morocco and Saudi Arabia were among the 20 main buyers of Brazilian agribusiness products. In February, sales to the Saudis grew 16.9%, resulting in revenues of US$ 96.23 million.
Accumulation over two months
In the first two months of 2010, exports totalled US$ 8.479 billion, growth of 8.6% over the value exported in the same period in 2009. Imports also presented positive variation (29.9%), totalling 1.898 billion. The trade balance rose from US$ 6.343 billion to US$ 6.580 billion.
From March 2009 to February 2010, foreign sales of Brazilian agricultural products generated revenues of US$ 65.430 billion. This value was 7.2% lower than that reached in the period from March 2008 to February 2009, when they reached US$ 70.486 billion. Imports were 7.6% lower than in the previous months, with expenses of US$ 10.260 billion. As a result, the accumulated commercial surplus over the last 12 months was US$ 55.17 billion.
Domestic market
With the expansion of exports on the domestic market, the estimate is for the agribusiness GDP, which dropped around 5% last year, this year should reach between 4% to 5%. Farmer income should also rise.
The value of agricultural production, which represents the revenues of producers, should rise from 154.3 billion Brazilian reals (US$ 87 billion) to 160 billion reals (US$ 90 billion) from 2009 to 2010. Considering all agriculture, the value of agricultural production should rise from 272 billion reals (US$ 153 billion) to 285 billion reals (US$ 160 billion) from 2009 to 2010.
However, the year of 2010 should be better for agribusiness in terms of production, exports, domestic market and gross farmer income.
*Translated by Mark Ament
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